Matthew and Luke both tell us that Jesus was born during the
reign of “Herod.” (See Matthew 2:1 and Luke 1:5.) Furthermore, this Herod died
while Joseph and Mary and baby Jesus were in Egypt, and then Herod’s son
Archelaus took over. (See Matthew 2:19-22.) Putting this together with other historical
information, Biblical scholars agree that Jesus must have been born during the
reign of Herod the Great.
(Historical evidence also tells us that Archelaus was soon
replaced by his brother, Herod Antipas. Herod Antipas is the one who had John
the Baptist beheaded and reviled Jesus before his crucifixion.)
Most historians place Herod the Great’s death in 4 B.C., although
some date it as early as 5 B.C. or as late as 1 B.C. Unfortunately for our B.C./A.D.
distinction, Herod the Great died too early. The sixth century monk Dionysius
developed this dating system to revolve around the birth of Christ. (A.D.
stands for anno Domini, which means “in
the year of our Lord.") But
given the probable date of Herod’s death, it’s likely that Jesus was born
around 5 B.C. This means that Dionysius must have been at least one year but
probably four to five years off.
So if you want to confuse your friends, tell them it’s 2018
A.D.
* * * * *
For more information on the historical circumstances
surrounding Christ’s birth, see In the
Fullness of Time: A Historian Looks at Christmas, Easter, and the Early Church, by Paul L. Maier. 
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